Personally, I'd like to believe that this guy's correct in that the use of a nuclear weapon by a state like Iran is unlikely. Unfortunately, I don't. I think that religious fervor can easily overcome the sort of secular considerations that prevented a nuclear war between the US and the USSR.
Simply put, Islam believes in martyrdom. One could say, they believe that the more, the better. And so, if a few million Iranians were to be martyred because Iran succeeded in dealing a death blow to Israel, wouldn't that--by some relatively common Islamic principles--be a blessed event?